(* Readings are required.)

Lecture 1. Introduction on China's transition to development

*BN , Introduction: From transition to Development

Eswar S. Prasad and Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006, Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm, IMF discussion paper.

Yingyi Qian, 2001, How Reform Worked in China.

Yingyi Qian and Jinglian Wu, 2000, China's Transition to a Market Economy: How Far across the River?

VIDEO: "Development Lessons for Asia from non-Asian Countries" Distinguished Speakers Program, 31 March 2006, Speaker: Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

Part I

Part II

Nauro F. Campos and Fabrizio Coricelli, 2000, Growth in transition: what we know, what we don't know and what we should, Journal of Economic Literature, 40 (3), pp.793-836.

Andrew H. Wedeman, 2003, From Mao to Market: rent seeking, local protectionism and marketization, introduction, Cambridge University Press.

Jeffrey Sachs and Wing Thye Woo 2000 “Understanding China's Economic Performance”, The Journal of Policy Reform, Vol. 4, Issue 1, section on state enterprise sector reprinted as “The State Sector Under Reform” in Ross Garnaut and Yiping Huang (eds.), Growth Without Miracles: Readings on the Chinese Economy in the Era of Reform, Oxford University Press.

China's Economy: Retrospect and Prospect, 2005, Loren Brandt, Thomas Rawski and Gang Li, (2005) editors,.

Lecture 2. China's Economic Geography

*BN , Chapter 1: The geographical setting.

Putterman, Louis. “Regional Variation in the Rural Economy,” Continuity and Change in China's Rural Development, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993, pp. 51-75.

Lecture 3.  Video screening China in revolution

*BN , Chapter 2: The Chinese economy before 1949 and chapter 3 The socialist Era, 1949-1978: Big push Industrialization and policy instability.

Lin, Justin, Yifu, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li, (1996), The China miracle: development strategy and Economic Reform, Hong Kong: Chinese University Press. (Section on the socialist development strategy).

Lecture 4. Transition to a market economy strategy and process 1978-2005

*BN , Chapter 4: Market Transition: Strategy and Process.

BNGOP , 1996. Chapter 1 (“The Command Economy and the China Difference”).

Dwight Perkins, 1988, "Reforming China's Economic System," Journal of Economic Literature , 26.

Elizabeth Perry and Christine Wong, "The Political Economy of Reform in Post Mao-China: Causes Content, and Consequences", in The Political Economy of Reform in Post-Mao China.

Lecture 5.  Rural/Urban divide

*BN , Chapter 5: The Urban-Rural divide

Dennis T. Yang et Cai Fang, 2000, The Political Economy of China’s Rural-Urban Divide.

Lecture 6.  Growth and development: growth accounting

*BN , Chapter 6: Growth and Structural change

*C. Holz, 2005, " China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tomorrow. " July/Nov. 2005.

Truth or consequences: China's GDP numbers , China Economic Quarterly, 2003.

C. Holz, 2006 , " Revisions to China's GDP Data Following the 2004 Economic Census: More Questions Than Answers? " , mimeo.

C. Holz, 2006, " Measuring Chinese Productivity Growth, 1952-2005. " Mimeo.

T. Rawski, 2001, China by the Numbers: How reform affected China's Economic statistics , China Perspectives, 33, pp. 25-34.

P. Krugman, 1994, The Myth of Asia's Miracle , Foreign Affairs, 73, 6, p62.

A. Young, 2003 ," Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period ", Journal of Political Economy, 111, 6, pp. 1220-1261.

E. Borenstein et J. D. Ostry, 1996, " Accounting for China's Growth performance ", American Economic Review, 86 (2), pp.224-228.

G. Chow et K-K Li, 2001,"China's Economic Growth: 1952-2010", Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp.247-256.

Lecture 7. Population growth

*BN , Chapter 7: Population growth and the one child family

IIASA graphs

Cai Fang and Dewen Wang, 2006, Demographic transition: implications for growth, chapter 4 in The China Boom and its Discontents, ed. Garnaut.

Wang Feng, (2005), Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy? Asia-Pacific Issues, No. 77.

Wang Feng and Andrew Mason (2005), Demographic dividend and prospects for economic development in China , UN working paper.

Lecture 8.  Labor markets: structure and migration

*BN , Chapter 8: Labor and Human capital

T. Rawski, 2005, Recent development in China’s labor economy.

Belton M. Fleisher and Dennis Tao Yang, 2003, China's Labor Market

S. Poncet and N. Zhu, 2005, " Country people moving to the cities: the migratory dynamic ", China Perspectives.

S. Poncet, 2006, " Provincial Migration dynamics in China : Borders, Centripetal Forces and Trade ", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 36 (3).

C-C Au and V. Henderson, 2005, « How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China », mimeo.

Huang Ping and Frank N. Pieke, 2003, China migration country study. DfiD conference.

Lecture 9. Inequality and poverty

*BN , Chapter 9: Living standards: Income, Inequality and Poverty.

*Yao, Shujie, Zongyi Zhang and Lucia Hammer, 2004, Growing inequality and poverty in China, China Economic Review, 15: 145-163.

Dwayne Benjamin, Loren Brandt, John Giles, and Sangui Wang “Inequality in China's Economic Transition”, mimeo, 2005.

Benjamin D., Brandt L., et Giles J., 2005, “ The Evolution of Income Inequality in Rural China ,” forthcoming, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 53, No. 4.

China Human Development Report 2005.

Giles J., A. Park, J. Zhang, " What is China's true unemployment rate? " , China Economic Review. 16: 149-170, 2005

Kanbur R. et X. Zhang, " Fifty Years of Regional Inequality in China: a Journey Through Central Planning, Reform, and Openness ", Review of Development Economics, Volume 9, Number 1, February 2005, pp. 87-106 (20).

The World Bank, Sharing Rising Incomes, Disparities in China, 1997.

World Bank Economic Report 2003, " China - Promoting growth with equity : country economic memorandum ".

Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen, 2005, China’s (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty, World Bank research paper.

Chan A. 2003, " A ‘Race to the Bottom': Globalisation and China's Labour Standards ", China Perspectives, Vol. 46 (2003), pp. 41-49.

Website of China labor bulletin

NLCUR , China's Unfinished Revolution, Chapter 5 Implications.

Lecture 10. Rural reforms: How Did Rural Reforms Catalyze the Economy?

*BN , Chapter 10: Rural organization and chapter 12: Rural industrialization: TVE

BNGOP , 1996. Introduction (“China's Economic Reform in Comparative Perspective”).

Jikun Huang, Keiro Ostuka, and Scott Rozelle, “The Role of Agriculture in China's Economic Development”, mimeo, 2005.

William Byrd and Alan Gelb, "Township, Village and Private Industry in China's Economic Reforms," Working Paper, World Bank, 1990.

Putterman, Louis. "China's Rural Economy Under Two Regimes," Continuity and Change in China's Rural Development, New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993, pp. 9-50.

Lecture 11.  Urban reforms

*BN , Chapter 13: Industry: Ownership and Governance

Gary Jefferson and Thomas Rawski, "Enterprise Reform in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8.2 (Spring 1994), pp. 47-70.

Janos Kornai, "The Soft-budget Constraint," Kyklos, 39.1(1986).

BNGOP, 1996, chapters 3 and 6.

Susan Shirk, The Political Logic of China's Economic Reforms, 1993, chapters 10, 11.

Loren Brandt, Thomas Rawski and John Sutton, “China's Industrial Development”, mimeo, 2005.

Lecture 12.  Is China a market economy?

*NLCUR , Chapter 2 (“The State-Owned Enterprise Problem”)

Cao, Yuanzheng, Yingyi Qian, and Barry Weingast. 1999, “From Federalism, Chinese Style, to Privatization, Chinese Style,” Economics of Transition 7(1): 103-131, 1999.

OCDE, China Economic Survey , 2005.

 

February 21 : Mid-term exam

Lecture 13. Foreign Trade reform

Key questions: How important is the world economy to China? How important is China to the world economy? What impact have foreign trade reforms had on the rest of the economy? Who Wins and Who Loses in China from the WTO?

*BN , Chapter 16: International trade

Lee Branstetter and Nicholas Lardy, “China's Embrace of Globalization”, in China's Economic Transition: Origins, Mechanisms, and Consequences, edited by Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski.

NLICGE , chapters 2 and 4.

Naughton, Barry, 1996, “China's Emergence and Prospects as a Trading Nation,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp. 273-343.

Rosen, Daniel, chapter 2. Behind the Open Door: Foreign Enterprises in the Chinese Marketplace, 1999,

World Bank, Reform of the Foreign Trade Sector in China, 1994.

Lecture 14. Foreign Investment

Key questions: Why is there so much FDI flowing in China? What is driving FDI?

*BN , Chapter 17: Foreign investment

Françoise Lemoine, 2000, FDI and the Opening Up of China's Economy, CEPII working paper.

Tseng, W. and H. Zebregs, 2001, Foreign Direct Investment in China: some lessons for other countries, IMF policy discussion paper.

Huang, Yasheng. Chapter 1 (“Introduction”) in Selling China: The Institutional Foundation of Foreign Direct Investment during the Reform Era (New York: Cambridge University Press), 2003.

Lecture 15. Fiscal system

Key questions: What Have Been the Benefits and Costs of Fiscal Decentralization?

*BN , Chapter 18: Macroeconomic trends and cycles

Shirk, Susan. "Playing to the Provinces: Fiscal Decentralization and the Politics of Reform," The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993, pp.149-196.

World Bank (2002), China: National development and subnational finance: a review of provincial expenditures: Washington DC. World Bank.

Richard Bird and Christine Wong, “China's Fiscal System: A Work in Progress”, mimeo, 2005.

Loren Brandt and Zhu Xiaodong, "Redistribution in a Decentralizing Economy: Growth and Inflation in Chinese under Reform", Journal of Political Economy, 2002.

NLCUR , Evolving banking system chapter 3

Lecture 16. Financial system

Key questions: Will China Have a Financial Crisis?

*BN , Chapter 19: Financial system

Lardy, Nicholas. “When Will China's Financial System Meet China's Needs?,” Working Paper No. 54, Center for Research on Economic Development and Policy Reform, Stanford University, 2000.

NLCUR , Creating a modern financial system 4.

Lecture 17. Integration of markets: capital market

Key questions: What are the costs of financial distortions?

*World Bank, 2005, China Integration of National Product and Factor Markets, Economic Benefits and Policy Recommendations chapters 1, 3 and 4

G. Boyreau-Debray, 2002, "Financial intermediation and growth: Chinese style"

G. Boyreau-Debray et S.-J. Wei, 2004, "Pitfalls of a State-Dominated Financial System: the Case of China".

Lecture 18. Integration of markets: goods market

Key questions: What is the magnitude of the lack of integration? What are the determinants and the consequences?

*World Bank, 2005, China Integration of National Product and Factor Markets, Economic Benefits and Policy Recommendations chapter 2

S. Poncet, 2005, " A Fragmented China : Measure and Determinants of China's Domestic Market Disintegration ", 2005, Review of International Economics . 13 (3), pp. 409-430.

J. Huang and S. Rozelle, 2002, « The Nature of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China and Implications of WTO Accession »

A. Young, 2000 “The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China. ” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115: 1091-1135.

S. Poncet, 2004, " China's Domestic Market Fragmentation : Beijing struggles to put regional protectionism to an end ", 2004, China Perspectives, number 84, p. 11-20.

S. Poncet, 2003, " Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration? ", China Economic Review, 14 (1). p. 1-22.

S. XB Zhao and L. Zhang, 1999, "Decentralization reform and regionalism in China: a review", International Regional Science Review, Vol. 22, No. 3.

C.-E. Bai, Y. Du, Z. Tao and S.Y. Tong, 2004, « Local protectionism and regional specialization: evidence from China's industries » , Journal of International Economics, 63 (2), 397-417.

Lecture 19. Technology progress

Key questions: Will China remain the world's factory or will it become a global center for innovation?

*BN , Chapter 15: Technology policy and the knowledge based Economy

Cong Cao, 2004 Challenges for Technological Development in China's Industry Foreign investors are the main providers of technology China Perspectives n°54, July - August 2004, page n°4

Jon Sigurdson, 2004, China becoming a technological superpower – a narrow window of opportunity

Albert G.Z. Hu and Gary H. Jefferson, 2005, "Science and Technology in China" in China's Economic Transition: Origins, Mechanisms, and Consequences, edited by Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski.

Lecture 20. Comparing China and India

Key questions: Can the two giants be compared?

*T. N. Srinivasan, 2002, China and India: Economic Performance, Competition and Cooperation, An Update.

Deutsche Bank, 2005, China and India A virtual essay.

Morgan Stanley, 2004, India and China: A Special Economic Analysis.

Lecture 21. Growth prospects

Key questions: Will China become the first economic power in the future?

*BN, Chapter 20: Environmental Quality and the Sustainability of Growth.

*S. Poncet, 2006, The long term growth prospects of the World Economy . CEPII.

T. I. Palley, 2006, External Contradictions of the Chinese Development Model: Export-led Growth and the Dangers of Global Economic Contraction , Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 15 (46).

L. Kuijs et T. Wang, 2005, "China's pattern of growth: moving to sustainability and reducing inequality " , World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3767.

O. Blanchard et F. Giavazzi, 2005, Rebalancing Growth in China: a three-handed approach , MIT research paper.

Goldman Sachs, 2006, Dreaming with BRICS: the path to 2050.

A. Madison, 2001, “ L'Economie mondiale: Une perspective millénaire ”, OCDE.

W. T. Woo, 1998, " Chinese economic growth: sources and prospects ".

Lecture 22. Major threats: financial system

Key questions: Will China overcome financial problems?

*Brad Setser, 2005, The Chinese Conundrum: External financial strength, Domestic financial weakness, Paper produced for CESifo Conference: “Understanding the Chinese Economy”.

Ernst & Young: Rapport sur les NPL

Lecture 23. Major threats: managing reforms with losers

Key questions: Will China become the first economic power in the future?

*China Brief, 2006, "Social Unrest" Jamestown Foundation, volume 6, issue 2.

Keidel, Albert, 2005, "The Economic Basis for Social Unrest in China", presentation at the Third European-American Dialogue on China, The George Washington University. May 26-27.

World Bank. China: Overcoming Rural Poverty (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank), 2001. Executive Summary and Chapter 3 (“Poverty Reduction Programs in China”).

UNPD, China Human Development Report 2005.

Tony Saich, 2006, Evaluating Government Performance: A Grassroots' View.

United Nations, 2005, Health poverty and economic development in China.

Tim Murton, Recent developments in the social security system, chapter 12 in The China Boom and its Discontents, ed. Garnaut.

Lecture 24.  Opportunities and threat for the third world

Key questions: What are the opportunities and threats for developing countries?

*Department for International Development, 2005, United Kingdom, The Effect of China and India's Growth and Trade Liberalisation on Poverty in Africa.

*Freund, Caroline, and Caglar Ozden. 2006. “The Effect of China's Exports on Latin American Trade with the World.” Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Taylor, Ian, 2006, "China's oil diplomacy in Africa", international Affairs, 82, 5, p. 937-959.

AFD, 2007, La Chine, moteur du développement?", La lettre des économistes.

Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy, ed. L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf. Washington, DC: World Bank, and Singapore: IPS.

Goldstein, Andrea, Nicolas Pinaud, Helmut Reisen, and Xiaobao Chen. 2006. The Rise of China and India: What's in It for Africa? Paris: Development Centre, OECD.

Asian Drivers Programme IDS (UK)

Kaplinsky, Raphael, Dorothy McCormick, and Mike Morris. 2006. “The Impact of China on Sub-Saharan Africa.” China Office, U.K. Department for International Development, Beijing.

Lall, Sanjaya, and Manuel Albaladejo. 2004. “China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?” World Development 32 (9): 1441–66.

Lall, Sanjaya, and John Weiss. 2004. “China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002.” Queen Elizabeth House Working Paper 120, University of Oxford, U.K.

 

Lecture 25.  Conclusion

Key questions: Does China's Experience Prove that Gradualism is Better than Big Bang Reform?

*BNGOP, Chapter 9 (“Conclusion: Lessons and Limitations of the Chinese Reform”)

*Dani Rodrik, 2006, Development lessons for Asia and Non Asian Countries, Asian Development Review, 23, (1), pp. 1-15.

Sachs, Jeffrey. Comments on Alan Gelb, Gary Jefferson, and Inderjit Singh. “Can Communist Economies Transform Incrementally? The Experience of China,” in Blanchard, Olivier, and Stanley Fischer, eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993 (Cambridge and London: MIT Press), 1993

Suggestions for Further Reading (taken from Naughton (2006))

A wide variety of academic journals now carry articles on the Chinese economy. Several high-quality Chinese journals carry economics articles, and today most economics journals have at least a few scholarly articles with significant China content.

Of the Chinese journals, a (very) short list includes:
The China Quarterly (London: Cambridge University Press)
China Journal (Canberra: Australian National University)
China: An International Journal (Singapore University Press)

Of the economics journals, the most consistently interesting China-related articles come in the Journal of Comparative Economics.
A more specialized journal focusing entirely on China, the China Economic Review, carries many essential articles.

Also check new stuff on prominent scholars
Loren Brandt
Anita Chan
Carsten A. Holz
Nicholas Lardy
Barry Naughton
Albert Park
Dani Rodrik
Yingyi Qian
Shang Jin Wei
Wing Thye Woo

Online Datasets	Lien
Coefficient de gini (données provinciales) Source: Poverty, inequality, and growth in urban China, 1986–2000 X. Meng, R. Gregory et Y. Wang (2005)	Base
Base de données à l'échelle provinciale: nombreuses séries issues des China Statistical Yearbook (1949-2004)	Base
China Statistical Yearbook 2005	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 2004	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 2003	Base
China Statistical Yearbook 2002	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 2001	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 2000	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 1999	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 1998	Link
China Statistical Yearbook 1997	Link
China Agricultural and Economic Data	Link
Macro Statistics University of Michigan	Link
Household data China	Link